AFGHANISTAN AGAIN AT CROSSROADS

Afghanistan, a place where all the concepts of modern war are lost in the haze and fog of perpetual uncertainty. Military strategists and historians are confused, should they call it a phony war, just war or a mere long war. No explanation can satiate the mongrel to devour upon more human, a cadaverous melodrama.

Afghanistan was never a country in classical sense; it remained a maze of semi autonomous territories with Kabul as the pageant capital. The present attacks of Green on Blue are not a surprise, the reappearance of opium industry with a vengeance is not news anymore and the increase in suicide attacks is fairly a routine which is normally called as surge.

NATO Special Forces have started leaving Wardak after allegations of human right violations, US defense secretary Chuck Hagel has taken strong exceptions to the anti US comments of Mr Karazai , so the perennial confusion is increasing with every passing day. Allied troops move out and insecurity will move in, or the tribal calm will spread with diminishing responses from the real players, the people, war lords, drug barons and the Taliban.

How then this puzzle called as Afghanistan be solved, you stoke the cards in wrong direction and the picture is lost, you take two wrong moves and there you are out of the cart, unfortunately the Americans did both. From troubled allies to unreliable partners the story becomes murkier with each passing day.

What’s up? Three things decide the winner of any modern war, Technique, Technology and the Paradigmatic Metaphor of protagonists, from the very start the allied troops had an edge on technology but the Talibans were way ahead in technique and the metaphor. T o alter the balance one has to be very good in the application of knowledge in local cultural and customs.

French revolution and present day collapse (rather the remaking) of Russia are indicative that the suppression of poor is not the major cause of such things; it is the reforms at belated time which trigger the revolutions which are all most always initially leader less till the subsequent emergence of a leader at some stage.

So is Afghanistan a sort of revenge of geography from the lower steppe on one hand and the Mackinder’s heart land(Central Asia) on the other or it is a mere lack of killer applications which west applied to seek their present day glory? Two weapons, the suicide killings and the potassium and nitrate based IEDs are like inventing the gun powder again.

The provinces along Pakistani border are being used as launching pads. Two syndromes are evident, on this side the momentous Malala syndrome and the other side of border is the Fazallullah syndrome. The Afghan ramifications are well neigh visible in the sectarian killings of Hazara tribe.  Tribal war is brought home.

It could not be only sectarianism by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, it has its roots in bamiyan where Hazara tribe was mass murdered and as a consequence they joined Afghan national army in droves to take revenge from Taliban.

Another recruiting slogan for afghan army was the enmity of Pakistan, courtesy the Indian trainers. Wrong slogans fetch wrong crowd at wrong place, result chaos and more chaos. On the other hand the demographic signs of the afghan society are improving. Kabul is now an expanding city.

The youth bulge is increasing and after another five years over 65% population of Afghanistan will be under twenty. Out of this the girls will be in overwhelming numbers, the likely aspirants of modern education. The construction activity in major cities is at its peak. After 10 years Afghanistan will likely be a different country due to emerging social indicators, till then the neighbors, particularly Pakistan which has to bear the brunt.

A paradox is created, Kashmir on the east and festering Afghanistan on west has left the strategists directionless.   

The raison detre of the war was Al-Qaida, but now Al-Qaida being decapitated is almost gone. So why did US come and if it has gyrated the process to leave Afghanistan then what was it all about? The answer to this million dollar question is to create a controlled chaos through the application of famous chaos theory.

The Nagharhar, Nooristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan figures out as the launching pad to perpetrate same chaos in Pakistan.

Fazallulah is spear heading this move. He is provided with a sanctuary, a safe heaven and the logistic support to stoke an insurgency in Pakistan. Same way Sufi fakir who was arrested in Afghanistan and is involved in many terrorist attacks in Pakistan is not handed over despite repeated requests.

Beware, George Friedman in his book The Next Hundred Years  has clearly maintained that the objective in Iraq was to create chaos,  it was never to win territory.

Pakistan is not Iraq or Afghanistan, therefore the ground realities are different but someone, somewhere is trying to apply different models, and the cultural endowment is more of a plus then a differential at Durand line.

It is only a matter of time when all the players will realize that playing jujitsu can be fine with each other but playing games is too dangerous on such a wild territory. Silver lining, Pakistan is coming to grips with its wild, Wild West and the world has to give it a little time to breathe.

ABID LATIF SINDHU