To talk or to balk

Talks of talks with the TTP are rife. It seems the ploy of TTP has worked and even old enemies are willing to ‘forgive’ in favour of such talks. Political parties that had sworn earlier to continue this war for which so many had laid down their lives are now thinking otherwise. Well, probably in some manner, the poor souls of the dead have communicated the futility of their lives. Or has this anything to do with the elections being nigh?

So what are we talking about? Is the TTP serious in throwing down the towel or does the incumbent US withdrawal from Afghanistan has anything to do with it? Has the TTP receded on its terrorism efforts? Have they suffered such great losses that they are willing to renounce their tactics? Or is it a pure longing for peace?

To see through to the answers of the above, we must first answer a few rudimentary questions: First, what has the history of any such talks with TTP been? Second, has the offer of these talks been supported by any recession in their terror activities to show their seriousness? And, what is there to talk about? Finally, what does the TTP stand to gain or lose if it does indeed talk?

Answers to these basic questions are not too difficult. First, the TTP has never stood by any peace agreements, and how can it do so? For the very means they have adopted to successfully wage their campaign so far has that been of terror and militancy.

Second, the offer for talks should not be mistaken for the offer of a ceasefire, for there has been no recession in the terror tactics of TTP. Indeed, the first mention of these talks was coupled with increased attacks on innocent civilians and law enforcement agency personnel alike.

TTP’s demands are on the line of demanding the sky and getting away with whatever you get in between. Let’s see how practical their demands might be for the Government: They’ve asked for imposition of Shariah, which would not be conceded to. They’ve asked for complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the FATA area, the military would not like to transform FATA into a lawless frontier region where it has no authority and allow the TTP to consolidate their gains. They’ve asked for an end to Drone strikes and severing of ties with Washington. At most, even this demand would only result in raising some hue and cry about the drone attacks, and that is about it.

On the other hand, if the Government does decide to talk, what would be its demands? That the TTP renounce terrorism and lay down arms? TTP would not do away with their strategy of terror and militancy as this is what has got them so far. Next on the cards could be consent to the writ of the State in FATA. This would be unacceptable to TTP as it would deny them a sanctuary and curb their freedom of action. So, could there be a talk of ceasefire, assuming the government is ready to close their eyes on the first two essential demands? Now, dear reader, we seem to be going somewhere….

So if there is nothing real to talk about, why has TTP floated such a call and is now propagating it through their shura and proposing names of guarantors? Essentially, TTP is demanding something which the Government of Pakistan is in no position to concede to. So what does the TTP gain out of it? Actually, TTP is in a no-lose situation with the offer of these talks. If the Government is even willing to talk, this is a win situation for TTP as it provides them recognition. While, if the Government doesn’t accept their demands (which it cannot), the TTP would claim the Government to be a bunch of infidels who do not want Shariah, do not want to end drone strikes against innocent civilians (we know the TTP’s demand to end drone strikes is for their own freedom of action and not out of a love of civilian lives) and who ascribe to the patronage of kuffar. Furthermore, the TTP can get away with offer of a ceasefire (an offer the Military would hardly subscribe to). Not taxing our memories too much, we can still recall the last time a ceasefire accord was struck with the TTP: they consolidated, restructured and came back stronger, fiercer and meaner. Getting some fellow Taliban freed might even come as fringe benefits.

For the past decade, the TTP has waged devilish terror in the name of their extreme ideals. Their murderous campaign is not only restricted to law enforcement agencies as they’ve ruthlessly murdered countless innocent civilians including women and children. They’ve barbarously slaughtered, tortured, maimed, dismembered and mutilated their captives. They’ve targeted people from all walks of life, especially those who dared to raise a voice against their cruel tactics and mala fide intentions. With a sinister design, they’ve razed schools to the ground, destroyed vital infra-structure, converted peaceful areas to lawless frontiers and pushed areas under their control to the dark ages. They’ve harassed, extorted, killed, oppressed and instilled fear in the hearts and mind of the people. They’ve provided an umbrella to any and all anti-state factions and are prompt in accepting any and all terror incidents, providing them a brand name. No longer an organised single entity, they’re a loose conglomerate of a wide array of sub-groups featuring terrorists, extremists, separatists, hate groups, et al.

To allow the TTP to talk from a position of strength would be fatal. It would compromise the sanctity of countless innocent souls the TTP have mercilessly despatched to the next world and would undermine the efforts and sacrifices of our law enforcement agencies.

The TTP have played their card of “talks” wisely indeed. The timing is nigh perfect. Election season is setting in at home. Albeit slowly, the Afghan peace initiative is moving ahead. The backdrop of US announcement to withdraw from Afghanistan is significant. Pakistan is reaching out with more than its share of efforts for lasting peace in the region. If the Government must talk with the TTP, it must be fully cognizant of appropriate timings and conditions, what ground it is treading upon, what is at stake and what would be the price to pay. Caveat emptor: this could be a perilous deal, if not approached with prudence.

(Owys Zemir is based in Islamabad)